Timeline 2022: India’s Veto Power

Has the World started witnessing the default veto power of India??? I raised this rhetorical question to myself and started thinking about the answers, to my astonishment I have seen things happening, which I could never have imagined would happen in such a short span of time and made the world take notice about this change. My reading about the world order of last century, is that they will make a big hue & cry about India taking the center stage has shattered, the change was so seamless that, the new world order has already taken its shape.

Vladimir Putin by starting the Russia’s aggression on Ukraine has taken the first step to define who should be considered seriously in the new world order, reading the news from mainstream media, social media, and geo-political observers, it is now clear that most of the world has accepted that Russia and China together are the reason behind the war in Ukraine and trying to create a coalition against NATO. Xi Jinping trying to make China, the sole superpower of the world has used the fluid situation in the eastern Europe to his advantage and supported Putin’s action in opposing the NATO expansion in Russia’s neighborhood.

Putin’s war on Ukraine is a turning point in the history, which is shaping the world in many aspects, geo-political, economic, humanitarian and above all who should have a say in UN. The world has witnessed lot in five weeks, where India has abstained during vote in UN, for sanctions against Russia 4 times in four weeks, Leaders from all continents are trying to convince Mr Narendra Modi, the Prime Minister of India, to take a stand against its long-standing friend of all weathers Russia. Mr Modi spoke to both Leaders of Ukraine and Russia to convince for negotiations and stop the military solution.

We saw India’s external affairs ministry busy during the last month, evacuating around 25 thousand India students from the war zone, Ukraine, which itself was a great achievement when compared to the western world, who had left their citizens to self-help. Both India’s Prime minister and External affairs minister were having back-to-back meetings either physically or virtually with various leaders from across the Globe. Modi had meetings with heads of Japan and Australia, part of QUAD alliance, Japan increasing its investments in India and Australia signing off the Trade deal are positive steps. Modi had discussions with leaders from UK, US, and other European and Asian nations. Jaishankar was quite busy talking to his counterparts from Russia, China, Sri Lanka, Austria, Oman in India and reaching out to nations like Sri Lanka, Mauritius.

As the focus of the world changed from War to Economics, every nation wants friendly terms with India, as they see the biggest market and manufacturing & services hub which only help their survival by exports of their products and import of cheaper material and services. The COVID-19 pandemic has brought the realization among the richer nations that dependency on China is not only dangerous for internal consumption, but also for world due to the Xi’s global aspirations. India proves to be their best partner for both democratic values and economic returns.

Leaders from West, Europe and Middle east expecting India to voice and take decisions which affect the current world affairs, has demonstrated that the mindset of last century has paved way for the new world order. India abstaining in UNGA vote for sanctions against Russia was clear message that India is no longer willing to sacrifice its national interests to follow the orders from West, directly proving the point, India has its own “Veto” power now.

Sanctions on Russia are going to have negative impact in today’s world, Increase in Oil prices, will worsen the smaller economies, European countries, who are already grappling with inflation and food shortages due to COVID, Afghan refugees and now Ukraine refugees will be burden on their resources. Sanctions also increases the clout of China on Russia and its neighbors as we have seen China’s debt diplomacy will make countries as Chinese colonies.

Putin declaring that Russia will only deal in Ruble payments with non-friendly nations only make things worse for US dollar supremacy. World is witnessing a rise in humanitarian crisis situations, chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, COVID-19 pandemic, and now potential nuclear war, all can be attributed to the leadership crisis from the previous world order.

Western democracies having changed focus from world peace, terrorism and expansionism, instead prioritized on topics of climate change, artificial intelligence, etc., which have given a clear edge to China raising its ambitions of a Superpower. To counter the current power dynamics and avoiding any nuclear disaster, India taking a lead role to defunct the Chinese narrative and balance the power of democratic values through its non-aligned approach is expected to yield better results than leaders from west giving sermons to India how to follow orders. 2022 has proven that Veto power is not in signed pacts, it lies in the ability to lead with maturity, magnanimity and making this world a better place to live.